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What a prediction market is

A prediction market lets people trade on the outcome of a future event — “Will X happen by date Y?”. Prices reflect the crowd’s estimate of probability: a market trading at 0.63 means the crowd thinks the YES outcome is about 63% likely. On Puls, every market is a simple YES / NO question that you trade by swiping.

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Pricing

Puls uses an automated market maker based on LMSR (Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule) layered on top of real-world reference prices.
  • Odds move as people trade — buying YES pushes the YES price up.
  • New markets start near a neutral reference price and adjust as liquidity arrives.
  • You always see the live price on the market card before you confirm.

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Resolution

When an event concludes, the market is resolved through an optimistic oracle:
  1. A proposed outcome is submitted with a small bond.
  2. There is a challenge window during which anyone can dispute it.
  3. If unchallenged, the outcome finalizes and winning positions are paid out automatically.
This keeps resolution trustless — no single party decides who won.

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Positions and PnL

  • Your open positions and profit/loss appear in Portfolio.
  • Win rate is computed as mark-to-market PnL across your markets, becoming realized as markets resolve.
  • Win rate drives your leaderboard rank and your forecaster reputation.